The following Web sites are good sources of information related to the global R&D
enterprise. Much of the information in this report was derived from these sources.
REFERENCES AND METHODOLOGY ENDNOTES
1 During 2013 the release of new data from NSF modified the historical data for industry and federal government R&D funding and
performance through 2011 resetting the baseline upon which the Battelle/R&D Magazine Forecast is built. Additionally, as 2012 came to
a completion Q4 performance is included to revise the 2013 forecast estimate. Finally, the impact of sequestration, estimated by various
observers to be between $6 and $10 billion in federal R&D funding cuts, was factored into the final post-sequestration 2013 estimate.
2 To measure the economic impact of the forecast U.S. R&D expenditures, we used the scientific R&D sector as a surrogate for all R&D
activities. Typically, this economic sector consists solely of standalone R&D operations, ranging from small startups to firms such as
Battelle. For simplicity, this approach also models all R&D expenditures the same—spending on pharmaceutical R&D is treated the
same as automotive R&D, and likewise the same as university and government R&D. While there are differences in the research being
undertaken, there are strong similarities in the economic structure and purchases among these different performers—often more so
than R&D has with the other activities of a firm or industry. For example, from a purchasing perspective automotive R&D has more
in common with pharmaceutical R&D than automotive R&D has with automotive industry production activities— automotive R&D
does not buy billions of dollars of steel and glass, but rather computers, laboratory instrumentation, scientists, and engineers.
This conservative analysis is based on the application of certain economic impact multipliers to the 2014 forecast total R&D spending figure of $464.5 billion. These multipliers are developed using average multipliers derived from the 2009-2011 U.S. IMPLAN
economic impact models (with 2011 being the most current available), to help mitigate any severe recession swings from impacting
the values). In terms of total (including multiplier effects) employment or output impacts in the economy, the values associated with
scientific R&D are smaller than many “high-tech” industries. This indicates that using the scientific R&D sector as a surrogate for all
R&D will likely provide a more conservative and more appropriate measurement than applying R&D expenditure
3 For an example of research on the relationship between national research intensity, see “Sources of U.S. Economic Growth in a World
of Ideas” (Jones 2002). ITIF and AAAS have also done important work on this topic. An example of the long-term economic
returns and functional impact from a major public-private research initiative, see “Economic Impact of the Human Genome Project”
4 These DOD research activities are captured in the U.S. R&D Forecast and are included in the Federal R&D Funding-to-Industry R&D
Performance cell of the Source-Performer Matrix.
www.worldbank.org IMPLAN Group LLC
McKinsey & Company