in these predictions helps to better understand
alternatives and improve planning.
The individual tools and their
• NRAP Integrated Assessment Model-Carbon
Storage (NRAP-IAM-CS) simulates long-
term full system behavior (from storage
reservoir to aquifer/atmosphere). This
tool provides results that can be used
to compute risk profiles (time-lapse
probability of leakage and groundwater
impacts) and quantitative estimates of
long-term containment effectiveness, in
the context of system uncertainty.
• The Aquifer Impact Model (AIM) tool gives
a rapid probabilistic estimation of aquifer
volume impacted by a potential leak of
injected CO2 or saline water pushed out
of the CO2 storage reservoir. This tool
distinguishes between CO2 and saline
water leaks and is used to determine
impacted groundwater relative to selected
regulatory or detection threshold criteria.
• The Designs for Risk Evaluation and
Management (DREAM) tool evaluates and
selects the optimal monitoring design for
a GCS site, estimating the earliest times
for detection and probability of leakage
detection given site- and technology-specific constraints.
• The Multiple Source Leakage Reduced-order model (MSLR) rapidly predicts the
probability that the concentration in an
atmospheric plume of CO2 will exceed a
defined critical concentration, given known
leakage rates from one or more sources.
• NRAP Seal Reduced-Order model
(NSealR) estimates migration of brine
and supercritical CO2 through an
imperfect (fractured or perforated) seal
barrier above the injection horizon
using stochastically defined parameters
and Monte Carlo analyses, useful for
estimating containment effectiveness.
• The Reservoir Evaluation & Visualization
(REV) tool distills key information from
raw numerical reservoir simulations
on reservoir pressure change and CO2
plumes sizes over time, helping to assess
the portion of the site that may be subject
to regulation of monitoring and site care.
• The Reservoir Reduced-Order Model-
Generator (RROM-Gen) tool generates
reservoir look-up table reduced-order
models (ROMs) from established reservoir
simulations, which can be incorporated
into NRAP Integrated Assessment Model-
Carbon Storage (NRAP-IAM-CS) for site-
specific risk assessment.
• The Well Leakage Analysis Tool (WLAT)
allows rapid evaluation of leakage risk
from existing wells at CO2 storage sites. It
models potential migration of brine and/
or CO2 from the storage reservoir as a
function of well disposition and reservoir
• The Ground Motion Prediction for Induced
Seismicity (GMPIS) tool estimates shaking
intensity at the surface that could result
from potential induced earthquakes
at CO2 storage sites, providing useful
information during the project planning
and permitting stages.
• The Short-Term Seismic Forecasting (STSF)
tool performs a probabilistic analysis that
considers the site’s previously recorded
seismic history and new injection data to
forecast expected seismicity rate over the
next few days.
Taken together, these 10 tools represent
the most complete suite of models ever
assembled to assess the geological integrity
and environmental risk performance of CO2
storage sites related to potential fluid leakage
and ground motion. Dilmore explained that,
since its release, the Toolset has served the
geologic carbon storage R&D community
as a credible science-based resource for
evaluating, developing, and managing
geologic storage of CO2.
“The NRAP Toolset is being used by
industry and fills a critical need that
stakeholders from the international
carbon capture and storage community
have acknowledged. Specifically, the
tools are providing a unique platform for
rapidly analyzing and communicating
environmental risk performance at planned
or active carbon storage sites. The Toolset’s
release marks a significant accomplishment
in the Energy Department’s efforts to build
stakeholder confidence that well-designed
GCS operations can safely and effectively
store CO2,” Dilmore said.
The NRAP Toolset has been freely
distributed to researchers, regulators,
developers, operators, and insurers, and it’s
finding practical application for a number
of proposed and active geologic storage
demonstrations. The experiences of the
Toolset’s diverse user base are yielding
critical feedback to inform further tool
development and refinement.
Now in its second phase, NRAP is
applying and extending its predictive
capabilities to consider active management
and mitigation of GCS risks and strategic
design of monitoring to reduce related
uncertainties. Learning from continued
field testing of NRAP tools and methods
at GCS demonstration sites will help to
build confidence in their predictive validity.
These efforts are geared toward addressing
critical questions related to assessment
and management of environmental risk at
CO2 storage sites, and building stakeholder
confidence to proceed with industrial-scale
implementation of GCS technology.
R&D 100 Award Winner
The National Risk Assessment Partnership Toolset from National Energy Technology
Laboratory (NETL) was a 2017 R&D 100 Award Winner. It was co-developed by
Los Alamos National Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Lawrence
Livermore National Laboratory, and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. The winners
were announced at The R&D 100 Awards Gala held in Orlando, Florida on Nov. 17.
The R&D 100 Awards have served as the most prestigious innovation awards program for
the past 55 years, honoring R&D pioneers and their revolutionary ideas in science and
See the full list of 2017 R&D 100 Award Winners here: https://www.rd100conference.
Submissions for the 2018 R&D 100 Awards are now being accepted. Any new technical
product or process that was first available for purchase or licensing between January 1,
2017 and March 31, 2018, is eligible for entry in the 2018 awards. Entries for the R&D
100 Awards can be entered under five general product categories— Mechanical Devices/
Materials, IT/Electrical, Analytical/Test, Process/Prototyping, and Software/Services.
To apply visit: https://www.rd100conference.com/how-enter-rd-100-awards/